Global Copper Fundamentals December 2025

Copper Tightens Further: Low TCRCs, Fragile Supply & Smelters Running Near Full Tilt

The DBX November Global Copper Fundamentals report is out — and it shows a market that’s becoming increasingly supply-constrained as we head into year-end.

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November highlights:
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• COMEX traded $4.90–$5.08/lb, holding firm despite macro softness
• Spot TCRCs remain near historic lows, flagging severe concentrate tightness
• Global concentrate exports dropped ~13% MoM to ~2.7 Mt
• Chile still leads at 1.42 Mt, even after easing from October’s record
• Peru stabilized at ~970 kt, while Mexico and Indonesia remained volatile
• China’s imports rose to 1.93 Mt, supported by improving PMIs and stronger industrial activity
• Spectrum smelter tracking shows Asia operating near 98%, with North America stuck around 40%
• Grasberg’s gradual restart + Indonesia’s 2025 export restrictions continue to keep flows fragile

What stands out:

Copper is now behaving like a structurally tight asset, decoupling from macro drivers. Prices have held near $5/lb even with elevated real yields and muted Western growth. The physical market — not the dollar, not rates — is in control.

The path forward:

DBX expects tight concentrate supply, lean inventories, and policy-sensitive flows from Indonesia and Latin America to define price risk into early 2026.

For anyone exposed to copper — trading, mining, procurement, or macro — this month’s read is essential.

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