Copper Tightens Further: Low TCRCs, Fragile Supply & Smelters Running Near Full Tilt
The DBX November Global Copper Fundamentals report is out — and it shows a market that’s becoming increasingly supply-constrained as we head into year-end.
November highlights:
- COMEX traded $4.90–$5.08/lb, holding firm despite macro softness
- Spot TCRCs remain near historic lows, flagging severe concentrate tightness
- Global concentrate exports dropped ~13% MoM to ~2.7 Mt
- Chile still leads at 1.42 Mt, even after easing from October’s record
- Peru stabilized at ~970 kt, while Mexico and Indonesia remained volatile
- China’s imports rose to 1.93 Mt, supported by improving PMIs and stronger industrial activity
- Spectrum smelter tracking shows Asia operating near 98%, with North America stuck around 40%
- Grasberg’s gradual restart + Indonesia’s 2025 export restrictions continue to keep flows fragile
What stands out:
Copper is now behaving like a structurally tight asset, decoupling from macro drivers. Prices have held near $5/lb even with elevated real yields and muted Western growth. The physical market — not the dollar, not rates — is in control.
The path forward:
DBX expects tight concentrate supply, lean inventories, and policy-sensitive flows from Indonesia and Latin America to define price risk into early 2026.
For anyone exposed to copper — trading, mining, procurement, or macro — this month’s read is essential.
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