DBX Commodities
METHODOLOGY

How we measure.
And how we keep score.

Every DBX figure starts as an observation of a physical asset. This page explains how we turn observations into numbers, how we check them, and how we score ourselves against what actually happened.

OUR STANDARD
95%
Minimum forecast accuracy against outturn
01 · WHAT WE OBSERVE

Every link in the chain, measured the same way it physically works.

DBX builds a digital twin of the physical commodity chain. Each link has its own signal and its own measurement method.

SUPPLY · PRODUCERS

Mines & smelters

Satellite thermal observation of each plant gives an activity index from 0 to 100%. Coverage spans steel mills and copper, aluminium and nickel smelters worldwide, observed daily.

CADENCE · DAILY
SUPPLY · EXPORT

Export terminals

Stockpile volumes are measured from imagery and converted to tonnes using material-specific density. Loadings are matched to the vessels that take the cargo.

CADENCE · DAILY
FLOW

Vessels

Vessel-level tracking follows each cargo from loading to discharge: origin, route, destination and estimated volume. Coverage spans around 95% of global dry bulk flows.

CADENCE · DAILY
DEMAND · IMPORT

Import ports

Discharges and receiving stockpiles show how much material is arriving and whether it is being drawn down or building up.

CADENCE · DAILY
DEMAND · CONSUMERS

Mills & smelters

Thermal run-rates at the steel mills and smelters that consume the material show whether demand is holding up, plant by plant.

CADENCE · DAILY
02 · FROM PIXEL TO NUMBER

Six steps between an observation and a figure you can trade on.

  1. 1

    Observe

    Thermal and optical satellite imagery of each asset, combined with vessel position signals across the world fleet.

  2. 2

    Clean

    Cloud, smoke and low-quality passes are filtered out. Readings that fail quality checks are flagged, never silently filled.

  3. 3

    Measure

    Each asset gets a physical measurement: heat at a smelter, volume at a stockpile, cargo on a vessel.

  4. 4

    Calibrate

    Measurements are tied to each asset’s known capacity and history, so a reading becomes a run-rate or a tonnage.

  5. 5

    Model

    Asset readings roll up into country and global supply and demand balances, and AI models project them forward.

  6. 6

    Review

    Commodity analysts check every release against market context before it is published.

03 · INDEPENDENT VALIDATION

Checked against the ground truth.

Where operators and market participants hold their own records, we test our measurements against them before a dataset launches.

Coal stockpiles at a major Atlantic export terminal
Monthly stockpile volumes, history from August 2026. Independently validated at a minimum of 90% accuracy.
04 · WHAT WE TELL YOU

Limits, stated plainly.

  • Confidence flags. Readings affected by cloud cover or missed passes carry a confidence flag rather than an estimate presented as fact.
  • Activity is not output. A heat signature shows a plant is running and how hard. Converting it to tonnes uses calibration, which we disclose per series.
  • Revisions are visible. When a figure is revised, the earlier version is kept, so backtests use what you would have seen at the time.
  • Coverage is published. Each series states the share of capacity or flows it covers.

Test it against your own book.

We will run DBX history against the series you trade and show you where it would have called the move.

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